The Cold, Hard Football Facts have successfully predicted the outcome of NFL games and seasons for over 20 years. When we get to the Super Bowl, numbers can oftentimes go out the window. The Eagles and Chiefs are both good teams, which is why they’re representing their respective conference in the Super Bowl. However, the Cold, Hard Football Facts allow us to tell a different story.
Our numbers show that this game comes down to one matchup: Patrick Mahomes vs Eagles, and we don’t mean Philadelphia’s defense…
We are stating the entire Eagles team.
Four stats have predicted winning at a 60%+ rate this season at Cold, Hard Football Facts. The stats are Real Quarterback Rating, Offensive Passer Rating, Real Passing Yards/Attempt, and Total Team Yards. A quarterback is the primary influencer of all these stats, and Mahomes has played the position exceptionally well this season.
Kansas City ranks first in our four most indicative stats of winning, all thanks to Mahomes. The Chiefs wouldn’t be a true contender if they didn't have a talented quarterback. The team ranked ninth in Defensive Rusher Rating, which is respectable, but they were 27th in Defensive Passer Rating,
The Chiefs' defense is horrendous when it comes to Bendability, which determines how opposing offenses convert yards into points. They rank 22nd in the NFL in this category, and a major reason for this is how they defend quarterbacks. Kansas City is also 24th in Defensive Real Quarterback Rating, which is bad news against a player like Jalen Hurts.
The benefit of betting on the Chiefs is that they’ve been in this position before and have the best gunslinger in the NFL. Other than that, the stats point to Philadelphia heavily.
The Eagles are third in the Quality Stats Power Rankings and have arguably the most complete team in the NFL. Let’s start in the trenches…
Philadelphia is sixth in Offensive Hog Index, but 14th in Defensive Hog Index. The one area where the team can be exploited is in the run game, as we saw against the 49ers last week. Although, the Chiefs win with passing, which is beneficial for Philadelphia.
The Eagles have been tremendous in the secondary all season, ranking third in Defensive Passer Rating and first in Defensive Real Quarterback Rating. They’re also the best in the NFL in Defensive Real Passing Yards/Attempt. Mahomes is good enough to make plays against great competitors, but Philadelphia should be ready to answer the challenge.
On offense, the Eagles are more complete than the Chiefs. They don’t have Mahomes, but Hurts has been solid throughout the year. He is fourth in Real Quarterback Rating, sixth in Offensive Passer Rating, and fourth in Real Passing Yards/Attempt. The team is also second in Total Team Yards, which is the final 60%+ win rate indicator.
The Cold, Hard Football Facts rank Kansas City high because of Mahomes. However, this may be a biased position since the team as a whole isn’t as complete as you’d expect for an AFC Champion. A quarterback can elevate a team, and obviously, the Chiefs have been able to win consistently with their roster, but it will be much tougher on Super Bowl Sunday against a balanced Eagles attack.