It’s finally time for the 2023 NFL season to wrap up, but we have a few more informational nuggets before signing off. Let’s examine the matchup for what should be a fun Super Bowl.
These teams are both deserving of this moment
On the Quality Stats Power Rankings, the Eagles placed third, and the Chiefs placed fifth. Both teams had great seasons, and either would be a worthy champion. That said, we’re here to try to pick a winner, but it’s worth taking a second to acknowledge how well the Quality Stats align with the results.
Both quarterbacks are great, but Patrick Mahomes is on another level
Jalen Hurts had an awesome season and ranked in the top six on all three of our passing metrics. He’s also a great runner from the quarterback spot. But Patrick Mahomes topped all three metrics en route to his second MVP. Mahomes is a dominant force, and even a defense as stingy as Philadephia will have trouble with him.
The Eagles do have a dominant pass defense, though
If anyone can contain Mahomes, it just might be Philly, who led the league in Defensive Real Passing Yards per Attempt and Defensive Real Quarterback Rating. Their defensive line is deep and generates pressure, while Darius Slay and James Bradberry had great years at corner.
The teams are similar on the Intelligence Index
Perhaps surprisingly, neither team grades out as elite on the Intelligence Index, with Philly placing tenth and Kansas City 12th. Andy Reid and Nick Sirianni are both clearly good coaches, but neither side has been elite at translating yards into efficiency. Whoever does it better Sunday will have the inside track to victory.
The Eagles have the edge on the ground, but it’s closer than one might think
The Eagles unsurprisingly rank second in Rusher Rating Differential following a dominant season from Jalen Hurts and their offensive line, but Kansas City actually places fourth on the same metric behind a sneakily efficient attack and a much better rush defense.
Overall, we have two fairly evenly matched teams, as the short spread suggests. The Eagles probably have the better overall roster, but the Chiefs have Mahomes, the game’s ultimate x-factor. The Chiefs also hold a surprising edge on both Hog Indexes, meaning the trench mismatch may not be as big as some analysts suggest. Overall, the Chiefs seem like the value side, but it should be a barnburner of a game.