The Cold, Hard Football Facts are juicy right now, making them great for predicting player props. In the Divisional Round, the best players rise to the occasion. We know the big game players in action this weekend, and we also know the Cold, Hard Football Facts.
Let's hammer some player props!
Joe Mixon u17.5 Rushing Attempts (-130)
For the Bengals to win on Saturday in Nashville, they must throw the football. The sportsbooks are very aware of this fact, and they have boosted Burrow's passing total accordingly. Burrow is a 300+ passing machine, but this is never a manageable number to hit.
However, I am going to take a prop in this game that supports Burrow's passing yardage total without directly taking the bet. I like Joe Mixon to have under 17.5 carries on Sunday.
The Titans' front seven is very tough, as they rank third in Defensive Hog Index. This game is going to come down to Burrow's right arm, not Mixon's legs.
Deebo Samuel o93.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-110)
Deebo Samuel is one of the most explosive football players in the NFL. He is primarily a receiver that Kyle Shanahan also uses in the backfield as a running back. As we saw last week, Samuel is great at reading blocks and pounding the rock.
Samuel's combined total is set at 93.5 yards. I do not see the Niners throwing the ball a lot on Saturday against Green Bay, but this does mean Samuel will not get involved. Additionally, I like Samuel to be in the backfield a lot as the Packers rank 18th in Defensive Rusher Rating.
Last week, Samuel had 110 combined yards. I think this narrative occurs again on Sunday.
Leonard Fournette Anytime TD (-120)
Leonard Fournette did not play in the NFC Wild Card Game against the Eagles, and the Buccaneers still easily won. Fournette's rushing yardage total has not been established yet, but I would be shocked if he did not play.
You can lock Playoff Lenny in for an anytime TD currently with -120 odds. The Rams are very good against the pass, but they are horrendous against the run.
The Buccaneers will pound the football in this matchup behind Fournette because of Los Angeles' 27th ranked Defensive Rusher Rating.
Josh Allen o278.5 Passing Yards (-125)
Josh Allen is going to throw the football down the field against the Chiefs. This is how the Bills have thrived since the quarterback was drafted. Allen should have a field day against the Chiefs, who have struggled against the pass this season.
Kansas City ranks 16th in Defensive Passer Rating and 25th in Defensive Real Quarterback Rating. The Defensive Real Quarterback Rating is an indication that Allen's combined passing and rushing total could also be lucrative.
This total is set at 334.5, but after last week, I think the Chiefs will try to eliminate the designed runs for Allen. The Patriots had no answer for this in the Wild Card Game.